Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-14 78378.898696 82786.713303 87197.738300 91940.058450 96891.184942 101904.645636 107361.807278
2025-12-21 71045.861947 77750.531757 84650.691692 92273.180492 100447.849011 108941.798213 118424.979366
2025-12-28 66649.926774 75003.575718 83791.217347 93704.776016 104557.244467 116056.160714 129140.877250
2026-01-04 63055.256396 72644.971512 82919.774604 94715.003154 107847.784249 121986.815727 138325.827658
2026-01-11 59909.899644 70465.520792 81958.961062 95355.268883 110490.748021 127011.052384 146354.946877
2026-01-18 56937.290999 68246.763248 80742.764175 95508.987425 112412.973473 131090.821849 153218.048769
2026-01-25 54396.702344 66347.776879 79731.681553 95746.763746 114300.617980 135029.419817 159845.646873
2026-02-01 51952.713831 64418.014651 78555.788922 95672.724833 115724.741021 138357.968261 165717.847024
2026-02-08 50227.509131 63231.902907 78154.076599 96415.950774 118026.973129 142647.547776 172671.291280
2026-02-15 48235.635083 61630.254500 77175.437976 96398.668121 119370.331024 145775.242625 178245.142977
2026-02-22 47132.882931 61039.151267 77345.205122 97699.903209 122238.248985 150670.293876 185895.064021
2026-03-01 45899.076963 60227.677740 77197.938774 98575.467226 124565.960367 154912.548433 192778.993228
2026-03-08 44267.050376 58880.260274 76367.022771 98601.913828 125869.683462 157957.388895 198287.982476
2026-03-15 42877.269577 57783.699471 75799.246001 98912.455298 127492.396409 161375.086281 204255.723108
2026-03-22 42165.284105 57507.405156 76217.757438 100417.954881 130566.025659 166547.723615 212366.814492
2026-03-29 41293.688279 56989.776624 76303.545169 101484.717397 133085.447252 171048.661657 219683.215111
2026-04-05 40294.932035 56269.568469 76100.842510 102161.636748 135102.766711 174931.271775 226257.148490
2026-04-12 39119.532570 55278.325764 75517.133192 102324.154562 136452.650511 177980.862815 231810.534822
2026-04-19 38046.971917 54385.393022 75026.404362 102575.685975 137892.837018 181131.851603 237493.870987
2026-04-26 36886.878311 53338.791885 74303.066534 102497.350899 138890.620510 183718.470488 242475.505659
2026-05-03 36150.394454 52833.795346 74262.598143 103283.615492 140980.555004 187672.404810 249181.710178
2026-05-10 35116.629122 51894.956170 73624.115794 103265.332412 142018.652547 190293.524694 254217.851872
2026-05-17 34695.504974 51775.302901 74055.685871 104641.775517 144857.756924 195204.154790 262171.738754